As Matthew Jaffe and Jordan Fabian wrote for ABC News on January 25, the Latino Decision poll showed Romney with a 26-point lead over Gingrich.  And, taking a look at the exit poll results posted January 31, Romney held a 25-point advantage over Gingrich on election day, 54 to 29.

The Latino Decisions/Univision/ABC poll interviewed 517 Latino registered voters in Florida via landline and cellphone, and reached respondents in both English and Spanish, at the discretion of the person interviewed. The sample design started from the point of view of gathering an accurate and representative sample of Latinos statewide, as opposed to a small sample of Latinos gathered as part of a larger statewide poll.

In 2010, Latino Decisions partnered with the Los Angeles Times to conduct a pre-election, and post-election survey in California, focusing specifically on the Latino oversample.  Following the election, USC Professor of Political Science Jane Junn noted the L.A. Times poll was the most accurate in California because it took the time to accurately, and bilingually interview Latino voters.  In states with a large Latino population – such as Florida, California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and other states likely to be very competitive in 2012 -  Nate Silver points out (see item #4 here) that pollsters must take extra care to accurately collect data among Latinos – the fastest growing segment of the electorate in just about every state.

A few days ago, Latino Decisions released a poll in partnership with Univision News and ABC which found Romney besting Gingrich in the Republican primary, and Obama head of both Republicans in a potential match-up in November. However a closer look at the data reveals important differences within the Florida Latino electorate. Most obvious, and well known, are the differences between the South Florida, Miami-Broward Latino population which is predominantly Cuban American, and the Central Florida, Orlando-Tampa population with a large Puerto Rican. Further, within the Cuban population, important differences exist between the older more conservative immigrant generation, and the somewhat younger and much more moderate U.S. born Cuban American electorate. Readers can find full results of our Florida survey here, with banner points for Cuban, Puerto Rican, Miami, Orlando, and other differences within the state.

In this post, we summarize the key distinctions for issues and vote choice within the Florida Latino electorate. In courting and mobilizing the Latino vote in Florida Republican candidates, the President, and their surrogates can not take a one size fits all approach. Instead they should fine tune different approaches to the Latino vote in Miami versus Orlando or Tampa, and take into account different viewpoints of Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Colombians, Nicaraguans, Dominicans, and other Latinos who make up important components of the overall Florida electorate.

Candidate Favorability

Overall, we find Obama fares well in Florida with a 60 percent favorability rating, however there is considerable variation by the three Florida electorates identified above.  Among Cuban immigrants, just 46% hold a favorable view of President Obama, compared to 51% among U.S. born Cubans, and 69% among Latinos in the Orlando-Tampa greater markets in Central Florida.  Similarly, we see segmentation on views of Romney with 56% of foreign-born Cubans being favorable, but just 44% of U.S. born Cuban Americans, and just 36% favorable in the largely Puerto Rican Central Florida.  Gingrich, who is less popular overall, still sees the same pattern by group.  Finally, Senator Marco Rubio remains very popular among Cuban immigrants, but his favorability is nearly 30 points lower among U.S. born Cubans, and Latinos in Orlando and Tampa.  At the same time, when asked if the selection of Rubio as a vice presidential candidate would make Latinos more likely, or less likely to vote for the GOP ticket, Rubio has overwhelming draw among foreign-born Cubans with 70% saying they would be more likely to vote Republican and only 9% saying it would make them less likely. Yet among U.S. born Cubans the advantage narrows considerably, and among those in Central Florida the Rubio bump is even smaller. Rather than widespread, it would seem his appeal is concentrated.

Different Views on the Issues

When it comes to the economy and immigration, the two most important issues to Latinos in Florida, once again three interesting groupings of results emerge.  When we asked who is more to blame for the current economic problems in America, 59% of Orlando-Tampa area Latinos blame the policies of the Bush administration and 27% blame the Obama administration.  Among Cubans, there is a split with a 51-27 ratio of blaming Bush-to-Obama for the poor state of the economy, while among immigrant Cubans a 28-55 Bush-to-Obama ratio emerges.  When asked about how to best improve the economy, foreign born Cubans are much more likely to prefer lowering taxes (48%) than government investment in programs (33%), and U.S. born Cuban Americans are equally split with 45% favoring lower taxes and 44% favoring government investment.  Among Latinos in the Orlando-Tampa metro areas just 30% say lower taxes and 58% say government stimulus.

Finally, when we look to immigration, for the first time more similarity than difference is found.  Support for the DREAM Act remains high among all segments of the Florida Latino electorate with over 75% of all subgroups indicating support for earned citizenship if undocumented immigrant youth attend college or serve in the military.  Likewise, when we examine comprehensive immigration reform a majority of all Latinos in Florida support an earned path to citizenship, though U.S. born Cuban Americans, and Latinos in Central Florida are somewhat more likely to support CIR.

Looking Ahead to November 2012

While differences are likely to emerge within the Latino vote during Tuesday’s Republican primary, they may not be as apparent as they will be in November.  Republicans are far more likely to be comprised of Cuban immigrants, while U.S. born Cubans are fairly split between the two parties, and Puerto Ricans, found in large number in the Orlando and Tampa areas are far more likely to identify as Democrat.  While such claims have been made before, it is always best to look at the actual data, to see what trends are born out.

In a general election match-up between Obama and Romney, statewide the Univision/ABC/Latino Decisions survey reported 50% for Obama and 40% for Romney.  Within the three Latino electorates we identify here we find sizable differences.  Foreign-born Cubans side with Obama at 27% and 63% for Romney.  Their children – U.S. born Cuban Americans – give Obama 50% and Romney just 36%.  More stark, in the Orlando and Tampa markets, 61% support Obama and 29% for Romney.  Looking at a Gingrich nomination, the same patterns emerge.  Cuban immigrants are reliable Republican votes, while U.S. born Cubans trend Democrat, and Central Florida Latinos are the most likely to support Obama over Gingrich.

The 3 Latino Electorates Within Florida

Not only during the primary phase, but again in the general, all eyes will be on Florida, and the Latino vote here will be crucial. But unlike other states with large Latino populations in the Southwest, the Latino population in Florida is the most diverse, both politically and ethnically. As candidates engage the Florida Latino electorate they need to keep in mind the unique differences between Miami and Central Florida; between Puerto Ricans and Cubans; and among Cubans, emerging differences between immigrants and U.S. born.  The three groups we examine here are the largest and most distinct, but by no means are they only Latino groups in Florida.  Very large numbers of Colombian, Dominican, Nicaraguan, and Mexican Latinos are spread out across Florida.  While the data usually points to these other Latino groups as looking more similar to the Orlando-Tampa results presented here, additional nuances remain. Candidates and groups hoping to influence need to move away from a one-size-fits-all approach, and be sure to fine tune their outreach plans, and campaign commercials to reach different Latino audiences in Miami, Orlando, Tampa and elsewhere, and get to know the intricacies of the Latino electorate in Florida if they hope to win big in November.

Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D., is co-founder of Latino Decisions, and Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington.  He can be reached at matt.barreto@latinodecisions.com

This article was originally published at NBC Latino

Judging by the more than 400 “likes” on Newt Gingrich – Para Latinos Facebook, Newt Gingrich should do well with Latinos in the Florida primary this coming Tuesday. By contrast, Mitt Romney only has a dozen or so “likes” on his page.  But Facebook popularity does not win elections because according to the Univision-ABC-Latino Decisions poll released this week of Latino Florida voters Romney wins the popularity contest that really matters.

Less than a week before the primary, Mitt Romney’s favorability among Latinos in Florida is at 40%, comfortably ahead of Newt Gingrich’s 33% approval. More specifically, Romney’s favorables are not only higher but his unfavorables are lower than Gingrich’s. When these Latino voters were asked who they would vote for, Romney’s favorability ratings translated into solid vote intentions, 35%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Ron Paul at 6%, and Rick Santorum at 8%.

Gingrich may be surging among the general electorate in Florida, but among Floridian Latinos a surge has yet to materialize. They refuse to embrace Newt Gingrich even though he is the only candidate that has coordinated a consistent Latino outreach effort since late 2010. His is the only campaign with a full fledged Spanish language website, presidentegingrich.com, which greets the Latino visitors with a list of 10 reasons why he’s their guy. Romney on the other hand has a a rinky-dink English language page that looks like a low-tech blog.

The lack of Latino love for Gingrich is even more puzzling given he has stood alone among the GOP primary candidates in his less draconian views toward immigration reform. Meanwhile, Romney who has advocated an enforcement-only approach to immigration, said he would veto the DREAM Act, and suggested self-deportation as a way to address our failed immigration system. It would seem that Latinos who continue to rank immigration as the first or second most important issue area would support the candidate that is closer to their issue positions.

The answer to Gingrich’s Florida Latino slump is simple – Cuban-Americans. This group makes up a little more than half of the Latino electorate in Florida and this group by and large is not personally affected by immigration because of their legal status. This is not to say that Cuban-Americans do not support immigration reform or the DREAM Act, they simply are not as personally affected by the issue as Mexican immigrants. In the latest Univision-ABC-Latino Decisions poll, 36% of Cuban-American voters indicated immigration was the most important issue facing the Latino community, while half of Mexican-American voters named immigration their top concern.

Romney may not have a polished Latino-targeted website and a large Latino Facebook following. But who needs that, when you have the endorsements of the most prominent national Cuban-American political leaders, Ileana Roth-Leithen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, and Mario Diaz-Balart. Romney has also garnered a long list of endorsements from city and state Latino leaders. Finally, the rumors that Marco Rubio is on the short list for Romney’s running mate can’t hurt.

Not all is lost for Gingrich in his quest for the Latino vote. His outreach and policy positions place him as a frontrunner among the Latino electorate in Texas, the state with the second largest Latino population. The former Speaker also edges out Romney among Independent Latino voters at the national level, an especially crucial electorate to consider looking to the general election. Finally, Gingrich shows the strongest approval ratings from foreign-born Latino voters showing that his immigration policy position has indeed paid off.

Seen from the microscope of Florida, Gingrich’s Latino outreach seems to have failed. However, once the lens is zoomed out Gingrich’s apparent Latino puzzle dissolves. He will have to continue to court the Latino Republican and Independent vote but in the meantime, his time and monetary investments have provided a solid groundwork among Latinos moving beyond January 31^st.

Dr. Victoria M. DeFrancesco Soto is the Communications Director for Latino Decisions and Fellow at the Center for Politics and Governance at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, at Austin. Connect with her at: drvmds@latinodecisions.com

Latino Decisions asked vote choice among likely Republican primary voters, favorability ratings for all candidates as well as President Obama, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Susana Martinez and more, and general election match-ups between Obama-Romney; and Obama-Gingrich. Other topics covered issues such as the economy, immigration, health care, and perceptions of party outreach to Hispanics.

Additional results can be found on the Univision News website here

Tomorrow, Latino Decisions analysts will be posting more detailed and in-depth review and commentary on the poll results, and implications for 2012.

Conference Call to Focus on Florida as First Major Latino State

MIAMI – The National Institute for Latino Policy will convene a national teleconference of Latino leaders from across the country next Monday, January 23, to host a Community Tele-Forum entitled “The Latino Primary 2012”   In the 2008 election, the wave of the massive Latino vote helped propel Barack Obama to victory.  With polls showing growing disappointment with President Obama among Latino voters, the upcoming primary in Florida, the first primary state with a major Latino population, raises the question, “Will Latinos vote Republican in 2012?

Held just one week before the Florida primary, The Latino Primary 2012 will allow invited experts and leaders to shed light on what to expect with first major voting contest involving the Latino vote.  “Florida represents the first contest of the Latino primary season, a stretch of state primaries involving significant Latino voting populations” said Angelo Falcón, President and Founder of the National Institute for Latino Policy, the event’s sponsor.

The Latino Primary 2012 will help provide a range of analysis and discussion from scholars, political leaders, and community advocates to help navigate and understand what direction the wave of the Latino vote will take in 2012.

To view the full list of contests in the Latino Primary Season, see below.

WHAT

“The Latino Primary 2012”: Latino Community Tele-Forum analyzing the Latino Vote in 2012 Election on the eve of the Florida primary

WHO

Gary Segura, Professor of Political Science, Stanford University; Co Founder and Principal, Latino Decisions.  Professor Segura will preview some new data on Latino voters in Florida and across the country.

Maria del Rosario Rodriguez, Co-Founder, Florida Immigrant Coalition

Arturo Carmona, Executive Director, Presente.org

Isabel Garcia, Executive Director, Derechos Humanos, Tucson, Arizona

Angelo Falcón, President and Founder, National Institute for Latino Policy

Other guests to be announced

WHEN

Monday, January 23, 2012

1pm Eastern  |  10 am Pacific

WHERE

Conference Call Dial In Number: 800-862-9098

Conference ID: LATINO

Program Title: Latino Primary 2012

2012 Primaries – Latino Primary Season

Jan. 31: Florida primary

Feb. 4: Nevada caucuses

Feb. 7: Colorado caucuses

Feb. 28: Arizona primary

March 3: Washington State caucuses

March 6: Super Tuesday — Georgia primary

March 18: Puerto Rico primary

March 20: Illinois primary

April 3: Texas primary

April 24: Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island primaries

May 8: North Carolina primary

May 15: Oregon primary

June 5: California, New Jersey, New Mexico primaries

June 26: Utah primary