How to measure Latino influence: a new quantitative model

By: Matt Barreto, Loren Collingwood, Sylvia Manzano
The importance of the Latino electorate has been the subject of both academic inquiry and media discourses. The question of Latino influence is frequently limited by an approach that focuses on single variable considerations (e.g., voter turnout or ethnic-targeted campaign spending) that are often contest-specific idiosyncrasies. Relying on theoretically appropriate concepts, we measure Latino political influence as a function of three factors: in-group population traits, electoral volatility, and mobilization (download research paper here). Using the 2008 presidential election as an example, we demonstrate the utility of incorporating a multifaceted measure that accounts for the contemporary complexity within the electoral environment. Because this framework is rooted in theoretical concepts, as opposed to discrete group or contest characteristics, it may be applied to any “influence group” in different electoral settings. Data are culled from several publicly available outlets, making it possible for election observers to replicate these measures and further investigate questions associated with group influence in American politics.

Applying this model to 2010, there are many states where Latinos could possibly influence the outcome of statewide elections including California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Florida, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Hispanic Vote will decide next Governor of New Mexico

By Gabriel Sanchez, Jillian Medeiros and Vickie Ybarra, University of New Mexico
With less than three weeks to go before the mid-term elections the outcome of several important races will be highly influenced by the Hispanic vote. Reports released by Latino Decisions indicate that the Latino vote will be highly influential in as many of 30 House seats, and that Latino voters will have a major say in who becomes the next Governor of the state of California. Latino voters in the state of New Mexico may also help elect the first Latina Governor in United States history, as Susana Martinez is vying to be the sixth Latino Governor of New Mexico. Unlike the current Latino Governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, Martinez has a Spanish surname (and first name), and more importantly is a Republican. While the neighboring state of Arizona has seen the Republican Party demonize immigrants and drive away Latinos, New Mexico is a different story. Along with Marco Rubio who is projected to win a US Senate seat in Florida and Brian Sandoval who currently has a lead in the Nevada Governor’s race, Martinez may symbolize a new and seemingly successful strategy for the Republican Party: nominate and support Latino candidates with Spanish surnames in states with heavy Latino populations.

But regardless of the outcome, the Hispanic vote will be the key once again. For the last several elections, New Mexico’s Hispanic population has constituted between 33% to 38% of the electorate, much more than in any other state, and by 2008 they accounted for an even greater segment of the voting age citizen population at 40 percent according to the U.S. Census….

Latino enthusiasm for midterm election at all time low

On the value of “Introduction to American Government” versus a law degree from Harvard…

No reasonable person would dispute the innate intelligence and intellectual capacity of President Obama, or for that matter most of his advisers. But as we approach the 2010 election, few, too, would dispute that the Democrats are in a bit of trouble—less trouble than if the health bill had crashed and burned, but trouble nonetheless. And much of that trouble will come not from the mobilized but ridiculously over-hyped “tea-partiers” but, rather, through the absence of core constituents who are disappointed with the administration to date. Among all the key constituents in the 2008 Obama victory, Latino voters appear to be among the least enthusiastic about voting in the 2010 midterm…. more in this in just a minute…

I heard Valerie Jarrett speak recently, and was pained to hear her, once again, refer to Obama as a “transformative figure.” Enough, already! This may well be so by virtue of his being the first administration in American history to be run by an African American, but that, alas, doesn’t necessarily win (or hold) seats this November. While the President clearly believes—or at least believed until recently—that he and his rhetorical gifts could overcome partisan divisions to build a consensus-oriented, problem-solving record of bipartisanship, someone forgot to notify his Republican opponents.

Latinos are less welcomed by both Democratic and Republican Parties

Analysis of polling data from Latino Decisions and the Washington Poll indicates there is a public consensus that Latinos are not as welcome as whites in either the Republican or Democratic party. Respondents were asked to rate (on a scale of zero to 10) how welcoming they think each party is toward different ethnic and racial groups. Latino and Non-Latinos agree that both parties are more welcoming toward whites than Latinos. All racial and ethnic groups assigned whites higher scores on the welcome scale irrespective of party.  The surveys asked, “On a scale of 0 – 10, how welcoming do you think the [ Democrat / Republican ] Party is towards [ Latinos / Whites ]?”

There is also clear agreement that the Republican Party exhibits significantly less welcome toward Latinos relative to whites. Using a scale of 0 to 10 where zero is most unwelcome and ten is most welcome, the GOP received low average scores on their disposition toward Latinos: 5.1 and 5.7 among Latinos and non-Latinos, respectively. In contrast, whites are viewed as very welcome in the GOP, with averages of 8.2 and 8.8. Democrats are seen as more Latino-friendly, garnering scores of 7 and above from both subsets of voters. The perception that whites are more enthusiastically received holds for the Democratic party too; Latinos and Non-Latinos assign whites higher mean scores.

Latino voters to influence outcome in 30 key House seats in 2010

In 2008 Latino voters turned out in record number and voted overwhelmingly in favor of Democrat Barack Obama, providing the key margin in many states. However, as the 2010 midterm election rolls around many questions surround Latino enthusiasm for turning out to vote after two years of Democrat control. Little data suggests that Latinos will flip and vote Republican in large numbers, yet a real possibility is that Latino excitement with the Democrats has faded and turnout in 2010 could be low. We examined the top 60 most competitive U.S. House seats in 2010 (according to the Cook Report, 02/01/10) and matched each district to the latest Census data from 2008 on the percentage of the population that is Latino.

Overall, we identify 30 House seats in which Latino voter may well influence the final outcome. 18 districts have a Latino population over 10% and Latino voter are sure to play an important role, while an additional 12 districts have between 5 – 10% Latino population, and depending on how close the final vote is, Latino voters could prove crucial here as well.

It is incumbent on both Democrats and Republicans to take the Latino vote seriously, and to reach out to identify important policy initiatives to the Latino community….

How Latinos Will Influence the 2010 Senate Elections

In 2008 the Latino vote proved signficant in a number of electorally important swing states, especially states like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida that have sizable Latino populations.  However, other states with rapidly growing Latino populations, and divided evenly along partisan lines such as North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana, all witnessed Latino voters influencing the final election results.  In 2010 Latino voters are poised to influence the electoral outcome for U.S. Senate in 11 or 12 states (depending on whether Texas sees a U.S. Senate election if Kay Bailey Hutchison runs and wins the Texas Gubernatorial election).

Based on dozens of assessments of the perceived competitiveness of the 2010 Senate elections, and the growth of the Latino electorate between 2004 and 2008, Latino voters are expected to play an important role in determining the outcome in each of the following states: