Conference Call to Focus on Florida as First Major Latino State

Latino Community Tele-Forum:  “The Latino Primary 2012”

Conference Call to Focus on Florida as First Major Latino State

MIAMI – The National Institute for Latino Policy will convene a national teleconference of Latino leaders from across the country next Monday, January 23, to host a Community Tele-Forum entitled “The Latino Primary 2012”   In the 2008 election, the wave of the massive Latino vote helped propel Barack Obama to victory.  With polls showing growing disappointment with President Obama among Latino voters, the upcoming primary in Florida, the first primary state with a major Latino population, raises the question, “Will Latinos vote Republican in 2012?

Held just one week before the Florida primary, The Latino Primary 2012 will allow invited experts and leaders to shed light on what to expect with first major voting contest involving the Latino vote.  “Florida represents the first contest of the Latino primary season, a stretch of state primaries involving significant Latino voting populations” said Angelo Falcón, President and Founder of the National Institute for Latino Policy, the event’s sponsor.

The Latino Primary 2012 will help provide a range of analysis and discussion from scholars, political leaders, and community advocates to help navigate and understand what direction the wave of the Latino vote will take in 2012.

To view the full list of contests in the Latino Primary Season, see below.

WHAT

“The Latino Primary 2012”: Latino Community Tele-Forum analyzing the Latino Vote in 2012 Election on the eve of the Florida primary

WHO

Gary Segura, Professor of Political Science, Stanford University; Co Founder and Principal, Latino Decisions.  Professor Segura will preview some new data on Latino voters in Florida and across the country.

Maria del Rosario Rodriguez, Co-Founder, Florida Immigrant Coalition

Arturo Carmona, Executive Director, Presente.org

Isabel Garcia, Executive Director, Derechos Humanos, Tucson, Arizona

Angelo Falcón, President and Founder, National Institute for Latino Policy

Other guests to be announced

WHEN

Monday, January 23, 2012

1pm Eastern  |  10 am Pacific

WHERE

Conference Call Dial In Number: 800-862-9098

Conference ID: LATINO

Program Title: Latino Primary 2012

2012 Primaries – Latino Primary Season

Jan. 31: Florida primary

Feb. 4: Nevada caucuses

Feb. 7: Colorado caucuses

Feb. 28: Arizona primary

March 3: Washington State caucuses

March 6: Super Tuesday — Georgia primary

March 18: Puerto Rico primary

March 20: Illinois primary

April 3: Texas primary

April 24: Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island primaries

May 8: North Carolina primary

May 15: Oregon primary

June 5: California, New Jersey, New Mexico primaries

June 26: Utah primary

Latinos not very enthusiastic about the 2012 election

By Pilar Marrero – Pilar.marrero@laopinion.com  | 2011-12-12

Click here to download slide-deck presentation from today’s webinar

Click here to view the results from the December impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll

LOS ANGELES, CA. – The lively primary campaign for the Republican nomination, which has been in the news for months, has not generated interest among the majority of Latino voters—whose enthusiasm for participating in the 2012 presidential election has plummeted in recent months. In fact, when asked specifically how enthusiastic they are about voting, there is a decreasing trend: Only 44% of Latino voters said they are very enthusiastic about participating in next year’s U.S. presidential election, compared with 47% in October and 50% in August.

“It seems like this is in part because there’s only competition on the Republican side, but it also means Latinos in general aren’t very interested and don’t feel included in the Republicans’ conversation,” said Matt Barreto, a professor at the University of Washington in Seattle and advisor for Latino Decisions, a polling organization.

The poll’s Latino Republicans are more enthusiastic, for obvious reasons: 57% said they are very interested in participating. However, Latino Republicans or Latinos who are sure about or interested in voting for the GOP’s candidates in the election have never surpassed 20% in this poll.  For example, in the most recent poll, only 9% said they are certain to vote for a Republican candidate, while a total of 17% said they are certain or could vote for a Republican.

“None of the Republican candidates has awakened the interest of Latinos,” said Gabriel Sánchez, a political scientist at the University of New Mexico. “As far as Obama, his approval among Latinos has remained stable. Perhaps we’re not as enamored with him as before, but in reality what the poll showed is that his philosophy is more consistent with that of Latino voters than what they are  hearing from the GOP.” Nevertheless, this is not good news either for the re-election of President Obama, who needs an enthusiastic turnout from his base to be able to win what looks like a close race once the GOP chooses its candidate.

The impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll began measuring the election preferences of Latino voters in February of this year. It has been measuring their enthusiasm for voting in next year’s presidential election and their potential support for President Obama and a Republican rival. In six separate polls, Latino voters’ tendency to identify with the Democrats and President Obama’s approval rating among the majority of Latinos—except for Latino Republicans—have fluctuated somewhat, but have generally remained above 60%. Nevertheless, the voting intentions and enthusiasm of Latinos, which are crucial for Barack Obama’s re-election in states such as Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and even Arizona, which is now said to be up for grabs, are not as positive for the president as could be expected. “On the Democratic side, there’s no competition or much discussion. In 2008, as we remember, there was a lot of enthusiasm around the race, particularly between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama,” said Barreto.

Only 54% of Latino voters said they are certain to vote for Obama. And only 31% of Latino independents have said the same. This number has increased from 38% recorded in August and 49% in October, but it is still relatively modest: The president will probably need a supermajority (more than 75%) of the Latino vote to counteract a loss of support among other segments of the population.  “This lack of interest can be corrected later on, but for now it’s like a vacuum that can later be dangerous for the president,” said Barreto.

As far as the issues of interest for this group of voters, they have also remained the same during the past 10 months: the economy and jobs have been competing for first place with the issue of immigration reform among the majority of Latinos. The most recent poll showed a technical tie between the most important issues: 43% thought the economy and jobs are most important and 42% thought it was immigration reform. Latino Republicans are the exception; for 48% of them, the economy and jobs are the most important, while immigration reform matters most to 24%.

Barreto said, “We’re asking Latinos which is the issue they think the president and Congress should address or give priority to. Immigration and the economy have consistently been in the top two spots for almost a year.” “If Obama’s campaign is going to ignore the immigration issue and focus only on the economy, they may not be as persuasive for Latinos,” said Barreto. “If they only campaign on the economy, there’s not much to sell to Latinos, whose situation is very difficult.”

Results From New Univision News/Latino Decisions Survey

A new Univision News/Latino Decisions poll conducted between October 21^st and November 1^st, 2011 provides the opportunity to gauge the candidate and policy preferences of the national electorate leading up to the 2012 presidential election. With national samples of both the Latino and overall electorates, this survey allows  for comparisons to be made between the political attitudes of Latino registered voters and the more general electorate. This initial release of the survey results focuses largely on the Republican presidential primary race, with questions focused on favorability toward the contenders for the GOP nomination, and items focused on how the front-runners would fare against each other and President Obama if the election were held now.

Please click on the following links if you would like to access the full results for both samples, as well as the slides from our webcast presentation conducted in partnership with Univision News:

National Sample Toplines

Latino Electorate Sample Toplines

Webinar Slides

The table below provides results from a question in the survey that asked respondents who they would support if the Republican primary election were being held today. The table provides results for the full and Latino samples, with a breakout of Republican identifiers within each sample. Herman Cain emerges as the leader within the full sample, capturing 23% of all registered voters, and 24% of those who identify as Republican. The poll was conducted prior to a fourth woman emerging with specific allegations of sexual harassment against Cain, so it is likely that his support has dropped as a result of this recent development.  Mitt Romney comes in second among all voters, trailing Cain by 5% among Republican voters and registered voters more generally. While Rick Perry is within range of the two leaders, with 10% support among all voters, none of the other candidates reaches double-digit support from voters at this point in the race.

Turning our attention to the Latino sample, we see that Mitt Romney has more support from Latino registered voters, particularly Latino Republicans, relative to Cain and Perry.   Furthermore, a large segment of the Latino electorate indicate that they are undecided on who they prefer among these candidates, which has resulted in lower overall support levels for the front-runners at this point in the campaign.

If the Republican primary election were being held today, who would you vote for?

The survey also includes a favorability battery for the President and all of the major contenders for the GOP nomination. We again display results for both the full and Latino samples. As we see in the table below, President Obama has much higher approval ratings among Latino registered voters than he does from the general public- 70% favorability among Latinos compared to only 53% in the general public. There is also a much larger gap in favorability between the President and all of the GOP candidates among Latinos than we see in the full sample. For example, while President Obama enjoys a nearly 50 percentage point favorability advantage over all Republican contenders, there is only a 14 point gap between President Obama and the most favorable GOP candidates (Cain and Romney) among the general voting population.

Another major finding from the survey is the lack of general familiarity with the Republican presidential candidates among the Latino electorate. Even if we isolate the three front-runners, a robust 35% of Latino registered voters had “never heard of” Herman Cain at the time of the survey, 25% “never heard of” Mitt Romney, and 19% “never heard of” Rick Perry.  These data strongly suggest that the Republican party has a great challenge facing them if they hope to secure a significant segment of the Latino vote in 2012, as a large portion of Latino registered voters do not know their candidates at this stage in the primary election.

Now I’d like to ask you about some people who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each, please tell me whether you have heard of the person, and if your impression is favorable or unfavorable. How about………?

The survey also provides a direct test of how the leading GOP contenders would fare against the President if the election were to be held today.  We again display results for both the full and Latino specific samples. As we see in the figure below, Herman Cain appears  to be the greatest opposition to President Obama at this point in the election, with the President only having a 6% lead on Cain with 7% of respondents still undecided. This of course could change dramatically in our next poll given the recent developments in the sexual harassment allegations facing Herman Cain. President Obama enjoys a more comfortable advantage at this point if either Rick Perry or Mitt Romney were to emerge as the GOP nominee, with nearly identical outcomes in these two scenarios within the general voting population.

Finally, we see that the lack of familiarity with the GOP candidates among Latino voters has the President capturing a much larger segment of the Latino electorate than the general electorate. As depicted in the figure below, if “the election were today”, President Obama is projected to secure roughly the same percentage of the Latino vote in 2012 as he did in 2008 – regardless of who represents the Republican Party.

While these early forecasts bode well for President Obama’s chances of securing a second term, it is important to note that our survey also indicates that a robust 53% of Latino registered voters are “less excited about President Obama and his accomplishments” after his first three years in office, and 48% were more “excited about voting” back in 2008 than they are about voting in 2012. Consequently, this enthusiasm gap among Latino voters could result in a drop in Latino turnout in 2012, which could be just as damaging to the President’s likelihood of winning a second term as a movement toward the Republican Party.

Gabriel R. Sanchez is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of New Mexico and Research Director for Latino Decisions.

President Obama’s image takes a hit

By Pilar Marrero – Pilar.marrero@laopinion.com | 2011-08-22

New Poll Results Posted Here

LOS ANGELES, CA.-  The most recent poll of Latino voters reveals a continuing political problem for President Barack Obama, which he must address if he wants to get re-elected next year.  The number of Latinos who are certain to vote for Obama in 2012 does not reach the level needed to, at this point, obtain the supermajority of votes the president needs to win certain difficult states, such as New Mexico, Colorado and other western states. The most recent impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll, conducted between late July and early August, showed this result.

Currently, only 38% of Latino voters are certain they will vote for the president next year. This number was 43% in February, when impreMedia/Latino Decisions did a similar poll, and it had increased to 49% in June after the capture of Osama bin Laden and Obama’s speech in El Paso reaffirming his support on immigration. As reflected below, the poll also found that only half of Latino voters are “very enthusiastic” about voting in the presidential election next year, while 26% are “somewhat enthusiastic.”

Latino likely voters favor Dems – 2008 surge voters show lower enthusiasm

With one week to go before the 2010 midterm election, the Latino Decisions tracking poll takes a closer look at who constitutes likely voters in 2010. Likely voter models are traditionally more difficult to assess in midterm elections, and as 538 has noted, different pollsters use very different and wide ranging methodologies, making comparisons problematic. Based on our latest data in the week 9 tracking poll, we provide the reader with three different ways to assess possible likely voters: 1) based on official vote history, 2) based on self-reported vote intention; 3) based on degree of enthusiasm. Across all measures of likely voters, we find that the Democrats do marginally better among likely Latino voters, than among Latino registered voters.

Latino Influence is Holding Parties Accountable

Whether Latino voter turnout is high or low, their influence will register in the 2010 midterms because this time, attention is squarely focused on whether they vote, rather than for whom they vote. It is all but a foregone conclusion that the vast majority of Latino voters will support Democrats. After years of escalating and egregious political scapegoating, few Latinos consider the GOP a viable option. Sharp evidence of this very point emerged in Nevada where Republican operatives launched a campaign encouraging Latinos not to vote. Republican strategists decided they would rather invest $80,000 to suppress Latino votes instead of winning them. Tens of thousands of dollars spent to make sure Spanish speaking Latinos (Univision audience) especially see the “keep out” sign and know their votes are not wanted. Interestingly, the “Latinos Don’t Vote” effort surfaced despite well-reported predictions for depressed Latino turnout rates relative to November 2008. Republicans and Democrats have a stake in Latino participatory decisions; their influence can manifest in various ways and is now a permanent part of the electoral environment. As others here have noted the Latino electorate is best poised to defy low expectations in competitive races, some including co-ethnics are on the ballot. This election cycle presents a unique opportunity for the Latino electorate to hold parties accountable for responsiveness, inaction or antipathy to group-specific issues and priorities. During the 2008 election season, Democrats courted Latino voters with specific commitments on immigration reform legislation. Republicans also made an issue of immigration, but did so in a manner that repelled the Latino electorate.

Is the Latino enthusiasm gap closing? Latest LD tracking poll…

With three weeks to go until election day the Latino Decisions tracking poll reports the first signs of increasing enthusiasm and vote intention among Latino registered voters in 2010. Last week the Pew Hispanic Center released a report indicating that just 51% of Latinos planned to vote in the November midterm, however Pew does not use a registered voter list as a starting point, and published research has found Latinos are likely to over-report their registration status and voting rates. In contrast, Latino Decisions uses publicly available state databases of registered voters. (read more on our methodology).

Week 7 of our tracking poll data report 74.9% of Latino registered voters state they are “almost certain” to vote, up from 72.6% last week, and 65.6% two weeks ago. When asked about how enthusiastic they were about participating in the midterm election, 50.2% of Latinos said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in November, up from 41.3% last week, and 40.3% two weeks ago. In contrast to the Latino Decisions tracking poll, which surveys Latino voters on a continual basis every week, the Pew Hispanic Center survey was fielded August 17 – September 19, at an earlier point when many Latino voter mobilization drives had not yet begun in earnest.