Proving the exit polls wrong – Harry Reid did win over 90% of the Latino vote

The pre-election analysis of polls by Nate Silver at 538 proved accurate in predicting 34 of 37 elections for the U.S. Senate. The three states that were off were Alaska, Colorado, and Nevada. Among these, Nevada was the biggest upset with the average pre-election polls showing Harry Reid trailing by 3 points, and the final vote tally showed him winning by 5 points. As part of the effort to better understand this error, we at Latino Decisions pointed Silver to the inconsistent and often error-prone methodology in which pre-election surveys do not accurately interview or account for the Latino electorate. In Nevada, getting the Latino vote “right” is crucial to the overall state estimates, as Latinos account for roughly 12% of all voters in the Silver State.

Not only were the pre-election polls wrong, but as we have already pointed out, the national exit poll estimate for Latinos is extremely unreliable. Using actual vote results from the state of Nevada, Harry Reid is estimated to have won 94% of the Latino vote (more on this below, keep reading to see the data and charts).